Ubuntu’s Adoption Curve, Past and Present

We’re about to embark on a new cycle and with that comes the hopes of many that the Perfect LTS can be a really good break through release. I was reading a comment by the ever ready Jeff Spaleta over on Mark Shuttleworth’s Blog. His assertion was that Ubuntu has been loosing people according to the Wikimedia web stats data, so I decided to put this to the test.

A warning to those new to web stats: they can be unreliable and not very scientific, there could be many reasons for the following data, in addition this is a limited data sample using data from people’s browsers who visit wikipedia.

Taking data just for Ubuntu in the months just previous to a new release. So March and September of each year to give lagards 5 months to upgrade to the latest version of Ubuntu, I put together the data to compare the past 4 releases and over their in context previous stats: Download PDF Here Spreedsheet Here

Jeff politely says “Ubuntu has been trending downward”, but to me over the cadence of the release it looks worse.

The other interesting comparison and the reason for the graph is the percentage of users upgrading to the next release. You can see 66% upgraded to Karmic while 18% stayed behind on Jaunty. For the LTS release Lucid we get a strong 69% upgrade while 15% stayed put, Maverick was still quite strong even coming after an LTS release with 42% of users upgrading and 41% staying with the LTS as expected. But with Natty we have a huge tumble to 13% of users upgrading and 21% staying with the pre-unity 10.10 release as well as 49% of remaining users sticking to the LTS release.

I’d love to hear your thoughts, what do you think we should talk about at UDS to try and pick up the adoption a bit and get Ubuntu on track for world domination? Are we failing and should we just pack up and install Android? Your thoughts as always below…

Update: Thanks to the comments about the Firefox user string, it does appear as if 11.04 was the start of the great Mozilla bleaching, removing any identifying marks from the browser agent. So all those identified as using Ubuntu 11.04 are actually using Chromium or one of the other browsers. The last data point is impossible to gauge now and it’s probably not that low. Still an estimated 15% of users aren’t using Firefox, not bad.

Ubuntu Community Center Guided Tour

I’ve been really wanting to show all you lovely internet based friends the exciting and totally awesome Ubuntu based community center I’m setting up. So I created a video where I show off the login/registration greeter and the rest of the physical space.

Check out the video, it’s only about 4 minutes long: To play this video see the source mpeg or go here for flash player.

Post your comments below.

Last Minute Problem: Limiting Users

So I have all these client computers doing the right thing, I have a long, long list of tweaks needed to turn Ubuntu into a community center operating system. Right now I have a few limitations that I would like to put on users:

  • Number of pages able to print per user per printer
  • Disk quota, 500MB
  • Timed Sessions (1 hour) per user group.

So far I know cups should allow page limitations, but I can’t find it. Disk quotas lack good documentation on how to set them up and timeoutd was the suggestion but it doesn’t appear to work with my testing. Also anything that notifies via notify-osd would be good.

Any suggestions?